In all the defensive schemes, in-game adjustments, junk defenses and dedication to 'zone' or 'man', one thing remains clear: we want to give our opponent the LOWEST chance of scoring the basket.
Having said that, over the past few weeks I've put a lot of thought into that concept and coined the term "Percentage Basketball".
I believe the "Percentage Basketball" philosophy can be applied to every team, in any situation, and in all defenses. The picture below shows the theory of Percentage Basketball translated into numbers (average 2pt field goal makes in men's college basketball is 44% and average 3pt field goal makes is 35%).
I believe that any time you let the offense into the "red zone" (the paint)- you are giving them a VERY high percentage scoring opportunity either by allowing an easy lay-up, a dish out to the open person, or on a rebound and put-back/foul situation.
It makes sense that the chance of someone making a basket decreases the further they are from the hoop.
-Closing out on 3pt shooters; allow your defense to have a "soft close-out". In other words, prevent the drive FIRST and worry about the shot SECOND (wouldn't you rather the defense fire up a 3 as opposed to shot-faking and going right by the defense and getting into the paint?)
-Play a sagging man-to-man; who cares how many times the offense passes the ball around the perimeter? Intentionally clog the inside of the key and keep the ball OUTSIDE the 3pt line. Will you give up some 3's? Absolutely. Will you close down the inside and see fewer drives to the hoop? You bet.
-Better ball pressure; the defender on the ball should feel comfortable putting TIGHT ball pressure on the offense because their 4 teammates are sagging off into the passing lanes and will be available to help on the drive. If the person pressuring the ball is beat on the drive and another defender steps in to help, that helper would angle their closeout back to their own man in a manner that prevents the drive but will probably give up a long jumper.
-Sag off of all screens; do not allow the ball to enter the paint! For example, on ball screens, the screeners defender should hug and the person guarding the ball should go under- prevent the drive FIRST! On all screening situatons...prevent the drive FIRST and keep the ball as far away from the hoop as possible.
-Switch on all screens; this may be hard with personnel on some teams. However, switching on all screens will definitely help you shut down the inside. If a post and guard switch there may be a quick second where the post can scramble and switch back with another guard. Many times the offense does not see the mismatch or the pressure is put on the offense to exploit the mismatch and this can disrupt their offensive flow (meanwhile you'll probably get the chance to switch back).
-Front the low post and bring help/congestion from weak side; put the pressure on the offense to make the entry pass over the top. At all costs, prevent the ball from being entered into the block (this is a high percentage area!)
-Make boxing out an EMPHASIS!; regardless of your defensive effort, an offensive rebound can really take the steam out of your team. I don't know the facts but I bet that getting an offensive rebound increases your chance to score on that possession due to the defense getting tired.
In men's college basketball, Northern Colorado leads the way in made 3pt field goals by shooting 45%. Arizona has the best 3pt defense by allowing opponents only 27%. On average, teams tend to shoot around 35% from 3pt range.
In 2pt field goals, Creighton ranks first by making 51% of their shots inside the arc and Kentucky's defense allows their opponent to make only 37% of their baskets. This averages to about a 44% field goal percentage for teams.
If we emphasize Percentage Basketball and cut back on the inside scores but, in turn, give up more outside scores, here's what a game could look like:
65 possessions - 12 turnovers = 53 possessions
2/3 from 3pt: 35 shots and only make 37% = 13 made 3's (total of 39pts)
1/3 from 2pt: 18 shots and only make 44% = 8 made 2's (total of 16pts)
**55 points allowed**
Holding an opponent to under 60pts will definitely win you ball games.
I also believe that this system will really cut down on fouls by keeping the ball out of the red zone on drives and rebounds.
My philosophy in Percentage Basketball is simple: shut down the inside and make your opponent beat you from the outside.
