Tuesday, December 18, 2012

Winning Statistics in Basketball: Stats That Matter

At the start of each media timeout (at the first deadball after the 16, 12, 8 and 4 minute marks of each half), a Sports Information worker hands me our stat sheet. It looks like this:






Official Basketball Box Score
Rhode Island College at. Rhode Island
12/16/2012 at 2:00 pm @ Kingston, RI


VISITORS: Rhode Island College (6-3)

TOT-FG
3-PT

REBOUNDS

#
Player Name
FG-FGA
FG-FGA
FT-FTA
OF
DE
TOT
PF
TP
A
TO
BLK
S
MIN

20
Vandell Andrade.....
f
 1-5
 0-0
 0-0
3
3
2
2
0
0
0
16
31
Courtney Burns......
f
 1-6
 0-0
 2-2
2
1
3
4
3
2
0
21
01
Danielle LeBlanc....
g
 1-8
 0-3
 2-2
0
1
0
4
0
7
1
17
13
Cara Paladino.......
g
 2-3
 0-0
 1-1
0
2
3
5
1
0
0
24
33
Ashley O'Dell.......
g
 6-13
 2-7
 0-0
2
2
1
14
1
3
3
29
12
Megan Sewall........

 3-8
 1-2
 3-4
1
0
1
10
4
6
2
22
14
Alexia Vega.........

 1-1
 0-0
 0-0
0
1
3
2
1
0
1
21
21
Devin Hill..........

 0-1
 0-0
 0-0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
10
22
Melanie Cline.......

 2-3
 1-1
 5-6
1
0
0
10
1
1
2
12
24
Michelle Lagrotteria

 1-2
 0-0
 0-0
0
0
0
2
0
0
0
3
25
Stephanie Prusko....

 3-6
 1-3
 0-0
2
0
0
7
1
1
0
25
TM
TEAM................




1
5
0


0




Totals..............
21-56
5-16
13-15
12
16
28 
13
60
12
20
9
200
TOTAL FG%
1st Half: 33.3%
2nd Half: 42.3%
Game: 37.5%
3-Pt. FG%
1st Half: 25.0%
2nd Half: 37.5%
Game: 31.2%
F Throw%
1st Half: 100.0%
2nd Half: 80.0%
Game: 86.7%























HOME TEAM: Rhode Island (5-6)

TOT-FG
3-PT

REBOUNDS

#
Player Name
FG-FGA
FG-FGA
FT-FTA
OF
DE
TOT
PF
TP
A
TO
BLK
S
MIN

01
Tayra Melendez......
F
 7-13
 0-0
 0-0
1
1
1
14
0
4
3
23
25
Lara Gaspar.........
F
 8-10
 0-0
 0-1
3
3
2
16
7
2
1
24
34
Samantha Tabakman...
F
 9-12
 0-0
 3-4
3
0
1
21
1
0
0
24
14
Teneka Whittaker....
G
 1-2
 0-0
 0-1
0
3
3
2
4
2
3
18
23
Brianna Thomas......
G
 3-8
 0-3
 1-1
0
3
0
7
3
2
0
25
03
Kerry Wallack.......

 2-4
 0-0
 0-0
1
5
2
4
6
2
1
22
05
Ajanae Boone........

 5-6
 3-4
 0-0
1
3
0
13
2
2
0
19
21
Symone Bullard......

 2-2
 0-0
 0-2
0
0
1
4
3
0
0
13
24
Megan Straumann.....

 2-6
 1-2
 1-2
1
1
2
6
2
1
1
13
32
Sydney Lewis........

 1-1
 0-0
 0-0
0
0
3
2
0
1
1
7
33
Tati Johnson........

 0-0
 0-0
 0-0
0
1
0
0
0
0
1
12
TM
TEAM................




2
4
0


1




Totals..............
40-64
4-9
5-11
12
24
36 
15
89
28
17
11
200
TOTAL FG%
1st Half: 62.2%
2nd Half: 63.0%
Game: 62.5%
3-Pt. FG%
1st Half: 40.0%
2nd Half: 50.0%
Game: 44.4%
F Throw%
1st Half: 50.0%
2nd Half: 0.0%
Game: 45.5%























Score by Periods
1
2
Total

Rhode Island College
27
33
-
60
Rhode Island........
53
36
-
89

Officials: Michael DoCouto, Fatou Cissolo-Stephens, Amy Todey
Attendance: 447

Technical fouls: -None. URI-None.
Points in the paint: -18, URI-60. Points off turnovers: -18, URI-28.
2nd chance points: -12, URI-7. Fast break points: -4, URI-20.
Bench Points: -31, URI-29.



There are close to 20 pieces of information you can take from this stat sheet on your team alone- everything from individual player stats (shots made/missed, rebounds, fouls, blocks, minutes played) to team stats (shooting %, points in the paint, points off turnovers, scores per half). This doesn’t include the stats that we take as coaches on the bench, which include: opponent scoring runs, our team’s offensive droughts, charting offensive and defensive efficiency, counting charges, paint touches, ball reversals, post entries, etc.

In a 30, 60 or 90 second timeout….which pieces of information do you look at? What do you choose to ignore and what do you relay to the team?





What stats matter the most?

I love the quote “a jack of all trades is a master of none”. Many coaches try to be good at too many things. My perspective is that it’s better to be excellent at a few things than average at many things.







Dean Oliver, author of Basketball on Paper, has come up with four essential stats for winning basketball games:
1.     Effective Field Goal Percentage (he weighs made 3pt shots more than a 2pt field goal)
2.     Turnovers (need to have the ball to score!)
3.     Offensive Rebounding (dramatically increases your field goal percentage)
4.     Getting to the free throw line (and, in essence, drawing fouls from the other team)

You can see how Dean Oliver calculates the % here.

There is also a more complex formula called Player Efficiency Rating (PER), created by ESPN columnist John Hollinger. Check out his formula here. It's focused on individuals and can be used to objectively determine a player's impact on the game.

Maybe one of the most simple and effective statistical formulas for measuring an individual’s efficiency on the basketball court is Oregon Tech coach Danny Miles’s “Value Point System”.

Numerator = Pts + Rebounds + (2 x Assists) + (2 x Recovery Stats)

Denominator = (2 x FG Missed) + FT Missed + (2 x Fouls) + (2 x TO)

Recovery Stats = Steals + Blocks + (Charges x 1.5)

Take Numerator and divide by Denominator

Scale: 1.75+ is Excellent, 1.5 – 1.74 is Very Good, 1.25 – 1.49 is Good, 1 – 1.24 is Fair, and anything .99 or below is Poor.

Jim Crowley, head coach at St. Bonaventure University, talks about the "Moneyball" concept and how he implemented this system with great success in this ESPN Article. Moneyball highlights another advantage of stats: focusing on several pieces of the game that you can track and measure that, if a certain standard is met, puts your team in a great position to win the game. Coach Crowley focused on turnovers and how much time his team had the ball in their hands. His philosophy was simple: if we have the ball, they can't score!

The beauty of stats is they are objective pieces of data. There is no bias or emotional influence on the formula. They are easily measured and can be a benchmark for success.



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